Adaptive Market Hypothesis and Return Predictability: A Hidden Markov Model Application in Borsa Istanbul

Abnormality Detection in a Landing Operation Using Hidden Markov Model

The air transport industry is seeking to manage risks in air travels. Its main objective is to detect abnormal behaviors in various flight conditions. The current methods have some limitations and are based on studying the risks and measuring the effective parameters. These parameters do not remove the dependency of a flight process on the time and human decisions. In this paper, we used an HMM...

Financial Economics, Return Predictability and Market Efficiency

Market Closure , Liquidity Premia , and Return Predictability ∗

In his seminal work, Constantinides (1986) finds that transaction cost has only a second order effect on liquidity premia. In this paper, we show that incorporating the well-established time-varying return dynamics across trading and nontrading periods can produce a first order effect that is much greater than that found by the existing literature and comparable to empirical evidence. Surprisin...

Commodity Market Interest and Asset Return Predictability ∗

We establish several new findings on the relation between open interest in commodity markets and asset returns. High commodity market activity, as measured by high open-interest growth, predicts high commodity returns and low bond returns. Openinterest growth is a more powerful and robust predictor of commodity returns than other known predictors such as the short rate, the yield spread, the ba...

tuberculosis surveillance using a hidden markov model

background: routinely collected data from tuberculosis surveillance system can be used to investigate and monitor the irregularities and abrupt changes of the disease incidence. we aimed at using a hidden markov model in order to detect the abnormal states of pulmonary tuberculosis in iran. methods: data for this study were the weekly number of newly diagnosed cases with sputum smear-positive p...